Forecast for used car export trend in the second half of 2026:5 major variables and 3 inflection points

The data for the first half of 2026 directly confused many people.

In the first six months, China's automobile exports were 5.096 million units, a year-on-year increase of 65.3%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports grew at a year-on-year rate of 110%, accounting for more than 45% of total exports.

The second-hand car sector is equally fierce. From January to April 2026 alone, the cumulative transaction volume of used cars nationwide was 6.49 million, and the transaction volume exceeded 420 billion yuan. On the export side, Russia + Central Asia, West Africa, and the Middle East + Southeast Asia contributed more than 86% of the total.

But under the surging data, the undercurrent is more turbulent than ever.

Let's not talk about empty things today, let's directly break down the five most critical variables in the second half of the year.

1. The knife of policy has fallen, and no one can pretend not to see it.

On January 1, 2026, the new regulations of the Ministry of Commerce and other four departments will officially take effect--

For vehicles that have been registered for export for less than 180 days, the "After-Sales Maintenance Service Confirmation" issued by the manufacturer must be provided.

This is a precise attack on zero-kilometer used cars.

In the past few years, a large number of new cars have bypassed the authorization system in the name of second-hand cars and flowed to Central Asia and Russia through parallel export channels. They are highly profitable and simple to operate. Among the new energy used vehicles exported by China in 2024, zero-kilometer models account for a considerable proportion. The scale of this gray area is so large that four ministries and commissions jointly issued a document.

The lethality of the New Deal is hierarchical:

The bottom-level players were directly eliminated.

● Traders who cannot get after-sales confirmation from the car company will either switch to real used cars or withdraw. Some experts predict that the number of such car dealers will be reduced by at least half in 2026.

Mid-level players were forced to transform.

● In the past, it relied on poor information and procedural arbitrage, but now it is necessary to have overseas service capabilities-the policy clearly requires export companies to have overseas after-sales outlets.

Top-level players actually benefit.

● An increase in the threshold means a contraction in supply and a rebound in bargaining power for compliant companies.

This round of shuffling is far from over. In the second half of the year, there is a high probability that those players who survive on zero kilometers will retire in batches. The clearing of the industry has just begun.

2. Russian market: The game between ice and fire

Russia + the five Central Asian countries together account for 38% of China's used car exports. This is the basic and the biggest variable.

A few numbers need to be engraved in your mind:

● Russia's scrapping tax in 2026 has increased by 70%-85% based on 2024, and will continue to increase by 10%-20% in January every year.

● The import tariff coefficient has been adjusted to 20%-38%, with cars with duty-paid prices below 1.2 million rubles bearing the brunt.

● Sales in the Russian car market are expected to plummet by 9.5% in 2026.

On the surface, costs are soaring and demand is shrinking, making this market almost impossible to do.

But there is another side.

The scrapping tax is step-by-step. The smaller the displacement and the older the vehicle, the more obvious the tax advantage. Compared with the complete tax impact borne by new cars, the price competitiveness of cost-effective used cars that are 3-6 years old in the Russian market is actually increasing. The domestic purchase price of a 2022 Volkswagen LaVida 1.4L model can already be paid by car dealers to be higher than the guidance price of a new car-because some overseas people are willing to pay a premium for this low-displacement, mature technology, and durable car.

Russia's logic will be clear in the second half of the year:

Low-end dumping is completely over.

● If you rely on price wars to sell goods, your profits will be eaten up by taxes and fees. The ability to accurately select products has become a core barrier.

● Being able to find vehicle sources with pairs of displacement, age, and condition in China, and matching the different tax and fee policies of Russian states is the basic skill to survive.

There is almost no opportunity for new energy used cars in Russia.

● Severe cold + lack of charging facilities + blank after-sales networks, fuel vehicles will remain the absolute protagonist of the Russian market in the next two years. However, Russia has been short of oil recently, and interdiction will increase.

Remember one word: the Russian market is not ebbing, it is stratification. Those who can survive will have good profit margins.

3. Africa: the largest source of increase in the second half of the year

The most exciting signal in the data for the first half of the year came from West Africa.

Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya together contributed 20.1% of their export share, and this was the fastest growing among all sectors-known as the strongest incremental track in the first half of the year.

Behind it are three drivers:

First,China's trade with Africa is systematically heating up. In the first quarter of 2026, China's new direct investment in Africa increased by 44% year-on-year. This is not just about selling cars, but about the entire chain of infrastructure, energy, and manufacturing. If there is a construction site, there is a transportation demand, and if there is a transportation demand, there is a car.

Second,the structure of the African car market itself determines everything. In the Nigeria automobile market, used car transactions account for more than 95%. The country imports more than 300,000 used cars a year, and most of them rely on overseas supplies. The core competitiveness of China cars in Africa is not the brand, but that they can run for five years without causing major problems for US$4,000 -8,000.

Third,new energy opportunities are just emerging. Oil prices in Africa are much more expensive than in China, and the cost of using low-end fuel vehicles is not low. As the prices of used new energy vehicles in China continue to drop and the age structure improves, the first batch of used new energy vehicles suitable for African road conditions and consumption power may begin to see large-scale exploratory exports in the second half of the year.

Opportunities for Africa in the second half of the year:

Japanese joint venture used cars

● (Toyota, Honda, Nissan) have natural brand trust advantages in Africa, with low purchase prices and high resale prices;

Haval, Geely and other independent brand SUVs

● Adapt to African road conditions, and the supply of parts is keeping up;

Logistics costs are still the biggest pain point

●, However, exporters with an average of more than 30 units per month can reduce shipping costs by assembling containers.

4. New energy used car exports: turning point is accelerating

In 2025, China will export 2.615 million new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 102%, of which the growth rate of plug-in and hybrid models will be as high as 230%.

By the first five months of 2026, the export growth rate of new energy vehicles will hit 110%, accounting for 45.1% of total exports-just one step away from historically surpassing fuel vehicles.

However, the export logic of new energy used cars is completely different from that of fuel vehicles.

Three core contradictions need to be addressed:

1. The risk of technological devaluation far exceeds that of fuel vehicles. It is normal for fuel vehicles to depreciate by 20%-30% after three years, but because of the rapid iteration of battery technology for new energy vehicles, the depreciation in three years may reach 40%-50%. If exporters hoard vehicles according to the logic of fuel vehicles, their funds will be eaten up by technological iteration.

2. Overseas after-sales sales are a hard threshold and not an option. The new policies of the four departments require export enterprises to have overseas after-sales capabilities. For fuel vehicles, roadside repair shops can solve the problem; but for new energy vehicles, not having an authorized service network is equivalent to selling scrap iron. Those who can export new energy used cars are essentially players with after-sales capabilities-this threshold will continue to increase.

3. Destination markets vary widely.

● Southeast Asia: Charging facilities are rapidly being rolled out and policies are friendly. It is the most realistic incremental market for used new energy vehicles;

● Middle East: Strong purchasing power and awakening environmental awareness, but the impact of high temperatures on battery life needs to be carefully evaluated;

● Europe: The emission regulations have the strictest, the greatest theoretical demand, but the highest certification barriers;

● Russia/Central Asia: Basically negligible.

Judgment for the second half of the year: The export volume of new energy used cars will continue to rise, but the number of players will not increase in proportion. This is no longer a wild era when you can sell a car. Capacity barriers have been established.

5. Reconstruction of the profit model: from earning price differences to earning services

What can really make money in the second half of the year depends on these dimensions:

Selection ability. It's not about selling whatever car there is, but about finding whatever car I want overseas. For a joint-venture car that will be shipped in 2021-2023 with a displacement of less than 1.4L and less than 50,000 kilometers, the second-hand purchase price may be higher than the guidance price of a new car-because there is real overseas demand supporting it. Traders who do not have the foresight for selecting products are essentially gambling.

Localized services. More and more destination countries are beginning to require imported vehicles to have proof of after-sales capabilities. Whoever first establishes maintenance outlets, parts warehouses, and language service teams overseas will get the ticket for the next stage.

Conclusion: Three judgments for the second half of 2026

First, the total amount continues to rise, but the increase belongs to those who are prepared. There is a high probability that second-hand car exports will exceed 600,000 units throughout the year, and the proportion of new energy will continue to rise. But growth is no longer evenly distributed-resources will be concentrated at the head.

Second, Russia is stable, Africa is strong, and Southeast Asia is strong. Russia is the fundamentals, with thin profits but stable quantities; Africa is the incremental engine, and whoever builds channels first will eat meat; Southeast Asia is the next outlet for new energy used cars, but it takes time.

Third, the moat of the industry has changed from relationships to capabilities. Customs clearance relationships, Central Asian connections, gray channels-these once core competencies are failing. What can truly transcend the cycle is the product selection vision, after-sales network, financial tools and compliance system.

This industry is changing from a stall to a shopping mall.

Some people have already seen the house number, and some are still looking for the entrance.

Which one are you going to make?

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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