EU 2031 Export Ban on Used Cars! The African market is ushering in a five-year window. How can China grab a share of used cars?

A few days ago, I was chatting with a brother who works on the African line. He said something that impressed me deeply: "In the past, African customers asked if there were Japanese cars when they asked if they had Japanese cars. Now more and more people are taking the initiative to ask if China cars are available." This change is not accidental. Europe has just passed a new regulation, making a big hole in the African used car market.

EU closes the door to old car exports in 2031

On August 13, 2026, the EU "Scrapped Vehicle Regulations" officially came into effect. The core terms are clear: from September 2031, only vehicles that meet road standards can be exported outside the EU. Translated into plain Chinese, it means-old cars in Europe with excessive exhaust emissions, failed brakes, and failed airbags will no longer be sent to Africa. Every year, 10 million to 12 million scrapped cars disappear from EU roads, of which more than 800,000 are exported in the name of used cars, mainly flowing to Africa. A considerable number of these cars simply failed to pass Europe's own annual inspections, but they entered the African market openly. Data from the United Nations Environment Program shows that in Kenya and Nigeria, about 95% of the new vehicles each year are second-hand imported vehicles, and a considerable proportion of them come from problem vehicle sources in Europe. The EU is serious this time. However, it will only be implemented in 2031, and the five years in between are the window period-European car sources are gradually tightening, and African buyers must find alternative supplies. In China, there are just a large number of stock vehicles with compliant vehicle conditions and competitive prices.

How big are the plates in the African market?

Look at the data first. The size of the African used car market will be approximately US$48.68 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$55.16 billion in 2031. SUVs and MPVs account for nearly 60% of the total, which are the models that African consumers demand. Look at the demand side. Nigeria is Africa's largest used car market, with annual imports of more than 200,000 vehicles. Used car transactions account for more than 95% of the automobile market. Kenya and South Africa together import more than 300,000 vehicles a year. The annual transaction volume of the entire African used car market exceeds US$18 billion and is still growing at an average annual rate of 8% to 10%. The presence of China cars in Africa is also growing rapidly. In the first half of 2026, China exported 325,000 used cars, of which Nigeria ranked in the top three with 43,000, second only to Russia. Shandong Jining exported 7003 used cars to Africa in the first half of the year, an increase of 80.3%. The export volume of Guiyang's used car export base doubled in the first quarter, maintaining a monthly pace of shipping 50 vehicles to Africa.

Japan and India are the biggest opponents

It's not that the African market is unoccupied. In the past two decades, Japanese used cars have taken deep roots in Africa thanks to their mature auction system and reputation for vehicle condition. Suzuki already operates in 51 of the 54 countries in Africa and ranks second in South Africa in market share. India's offensive is also fierce. Toyota and Suzuki have joined forces to produce Africa-oriented models in India, taking advantage of the logistics advantages and cost advantages from India to Africa to seize the market. India's share of African passenger car exports is already large. But China cars have something that Japan and India can't compare with-new energy vehicles. Ethiopia announced a ban on the import of fuel vehicles in 2024, becoming the world's first country to ban fuel vehicles. Electric vehicles only need to pay customs duties and are exempt from consumption tax, value-added tax and surtax. At present, about 90% of the electric vehicles on the road in Ethiopia come from China brands. China is a latecomer to the traditional fuel vehicle track, but on the new energy track, China cars have almost no opponents in Africa.

What car should I take? Different countries have different tastes

Africa is not a single market, and each country's policy preferences vary greatly. The threshold of the target market must be clear before withdrawing a car. Nigeria: Pickups are hard currency. The import of used cars over 12 years old is prohibited, and only left-hand steering cars are accepted. Great Wall Cannon and Jiangling Tiger account for more than 50% of demand in Nigeria, and the profit of a single unit can reach more than 100,000 yuan. The net profit per unit of economy cars is between 5000 and 10000 yuan. Ghana: Economy cars are moving steadily. The import of used cars for more than 10 years is prohibited, and a valid compliance certificate must be attached from 2023. Tariffs are classified according to displacement, and only 5% is levied below 1900ml. Ghana and Benin are low-tariff depressions, with a net profit of 8000 to 15000 yuan per unit for economical fuel cars, which is larger than that of Nigeria. Egypt: High barriers but strong demand. Passenger cars are only allowed to import hybrid or pure electric used vehicles produced in the past three years. CargoX registration must be completed starting from 2021, otherwise they will be returned and fined. Pure electric used cars are exempt from customs duties and only 14% value-added tax is levied. New car sales have fallen for 25 consecutive months, and demand for used cars is surging. Ethiopia: Only new energy sources. Fuel trucks have been banned. BYD, Geely, China Heavy Duty Truck and others have established small assembly plants in the local area. There is a real demand for second-hand pure electric models here. Angola: The recognition window for China brands. The import of light vehicles within 6 years of first registration is allowed, with a permanent import tariff of 10%. Geely, Chang 'an, Jietu, GAC, Dongfeng, and Great Wall have entered. Local officials have expressed their welcome to China cars and even hope to build assembly production lines.

How to grab shares during the window period? Three things to do now

First, put compliance first. Vehicle age limits, emission standards, and certification requirements in African countries are rapidly tightening. Nigeria has 12 years, Ghana has 10 years, Angola has 6 years, and Egypt has only received hybrid and pure electricity for nearly three years-calculate the age when collecting vehicles, and don't wait until the vehicles arrive at the port to discover that they are overage. Second, establish channels before European car sources exit. The EU ban will be implemented in 2031, but the tightening of car sources in Europe is gradual. In the past five years, whoever can first establish a stable distribution network and after-sales service system in major African port cities will be able to eat the biggest piece of cake after the window closes. Third, don't treat Africa as a "garbage dump". This is a mistake that many China car dealers have made. Japanese cars have been rooted in Africa for 20 years because of their reputation-stable condition, easy parts to find, and easy maintenance. If China cars want to gain a foothold in Africa, they can only rely on low prices and volume for a while, and rely on after-sales and quality to last for a long time. African buyers are becoming more and more sophisticated. If they buy it back and have no place to repair it, they will not find you next time. The window does not wait. The clock on the EU ban has begun to count down, demand in Africa is rising, and Japan and India are also accelerating. These five years have determined the position of China's used cars in Africa in the next ten years.

Source: Digital automobile export Xingchen

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